Well, February is almost gone, but there's snow falling in the Willamette Valley.
So as the alley and street turn white, and Broken Wagon Farm wakes to a slow winter Monday, here are some random thoughts for anyone who happens on this website.
1. Bringing Ragnarok Book 3, Part 1, has been written. Of course, that's just stage 1, but it is nice to hit the 50,000 word, 1/3-of-the-way-through mark. Especially as the past couple months have been a tad chaotic, as I have been working to wrap-up my academic work in preparation for going full-time on the authorship biz while preparing for my spouse to go through a major surgery (not life-threatening, but will be followed by a long recovery).
2. On leaving academia, I guess I should add some details. I have spent the better part of the past decade working towards a doctorate, but the time for that adventure is now past. Simply put, despite my successes in the field - publishing in a great journal early in my career, getting great teaching evaluations, so forth - haven't left me feeling any sense of satisfaction. Academic writing is too obtuse, good research is locked behind paywalls, and the culture of bullying and exploitation runs very deep in the academy, probably because it is dominated by a bunch of old white men who have been out of new ideas since they got tenure. I'm tired of seeing the best people leave to pursue other careers, and I'm finally ready to go too.
3. I am absolutely convinced that there is a need for the kind of story I'm telling in Bringing Ragnarok. Quality science and competent narrative do mix, and together can have a greater impact than either alone. As the saga progresses, the reader should start to see that I am telling several stories simultaneously - the story of humanity in the age of colonialism, the story of how elites have seized on the idea of war to protect their power, the story of how certain ideas come to dominate the collective conscious at the expense of others. My six perspective characters, in a way, are for most of the saga actually secondary to the plot. Hans Lewinsky in 1944, Sandra Chavez in 2041, and Olga in 2147 are in a way the real main characters in Bringing Ragnarok, much the same as Samwise Gamgee is the real main character in Lord of the Rings. And I chose these three characters to full a particular purpose, that you might be able to guess early in the saga, but will become more apparent in later Books.
4. Politics in the Anglo-Saxon world continue to be insane, as the liberal world order continues to break down. The dark humor is everywhere - from Britain pretending that Brexit is the "people's will" despite like 20% of voters not participating in the referendum, to the American Democratic party's hollow claim to be the "Resistance" while every democrat and their uncle scrambles to be the party's next anointed - each of them catering to a different tribe within the party. Disorganization, chaos, and uncertainty are the order of the day, and as far as American politics are concerned, all the shouting completely ignores the slow, steady move towards formal authoritarianism in DC that is ultimately what will destroy the USA.
Contemporary politics make it wicked easy to predict a bad near-future for humanity, at least. Hey, it'll keep purveyors of dystopian cyberpunk employed for a good long while.
On that topic, anybody who happens to have followed this website over the past couple years will probably note that I spend a lot of time thinking about the future. And actually, I'm rather convinced that my long sojourn in academia has given me a greater ability to "see" the broad outlines of humanity's likely futures - at least better than most of the hacks who pretend to. I have developed a unique scientific view of human society driven by critical social theory and cybernetic social systems, that I believe offers a chance to understand human history (and ultimately, the history of any other intelligent life that may be out there) in a new way, one that reconciles conflict and order and incorporates the post-modern understanding of our shared reality as a sort of illusion produced by our mutual communications about it, contingent always on the ever-present need to acquire the resources needed to survive.
I've come to the view that the world system does move in cycles, that these follow a disctinct pattern of chaos, reconsolidation, rapid growth, slow-growth/niche-expansion, metabolic overload and collapse into chaos, thus beginning the cycle over again. This not a deterministic cycle in the sense that, like, the world always disintegrates and then gets rebuilt. That's an extreme version of the idea, that can happen, but is by no means guaranteed. But the cycle of increasing complexity followed by release and reconfiguration aptly describes many patterns important to human society and history, as well as ecology.
Actually presenting this view in a simple and coherent way is one of the crucial goals of my fiction writing - Bringing Ragnarok, my present project, and Bivrost Nine, the project to come after (a Babylon-5 themed saga). But I have constructed the overarching plot of BR using this critical systems perspective, emboldened by the fact that my assessment of phenomena like, oh, the current "President" and his people's electoral strategy has been spot-on over and over again, while so many others seem continually shocked and surprised by events.
Sadly, my assessment is that things are headed down a very dark path, with hope re-emerging somewhere by mid-century. The cycle of European Great Power struggles produces a geoquake every 100 years or so [see: (1618-1648), (1756-1763), (1803-1815), (1914-1945)] and the next iteration is in the making - unless people figure out how to stop it, and soon. But as the crucial driver is the collapse of the American Empire at the same time China is returning to its historic role as a leading global power, and falling empires usually start a fight with and lose to the rising challenger, I see great dangers on the horizon.
Dangers that the DC system refuses to see, and in fact likes, because the American two-party system is outdated, hollow, and colonized by two big-tent parties who benefit from people living as if they're the only political forces in play.
My predictions: 2020 is a disastrous mess of an election. Either *(EDIT BELOW)* Sanders or Biden ends up winning the Democratic primaries in a drawn-out, vicious fight, leading to the loser *probably* launching a 3rd-party bid. (Warren is doomed by Sanders and Harris both running, Harris/Booker will do well in the south) If Sanders takes the DNC nod, the neoliberal wing breaks off, joins the nevertrumper wing of the old GOP, and launches a formal 3rd party bid - not unlike The Independent Group that just formed in the UK from Labour and Tory defectors. If Biden wins, the Sanders-left probably runs a 3rd party bid.
'cause, see, the trick is this: America is fracturing along regional lines, with regional splits correlated to the ethnic composition of the local electorate. And so is the UK. New opportunities are coming, and new coalitions are forming. Individual agendas and egos are all looking at the state of politics, and seeing that the landscape is changing. Media outlets won't pick up on this until it's too late (and the present Oval-office occupant steals the election through some means, rendering opposition moot) - but that's their deal, innit?
Living through these times is interesting, if nothing else. As I said - makes writing dystopian cyberpunk plots with realistic backstorys easier than it would have been ten years ago.
On that, for anybody who has gone through this lengthy blather - despite the nuts-ness of the past few months, I'm aiming to have Book 3 released on Amazon by the end of July, and Book 4 released in mid-December if at all possible. Fortunately a lot of the research for Book 3 carries over to Book 4, as happened with Book 1 and Book 2, so I'm confident I can continue to make progress.
And to reward you for reading this far (or being smart and skimming to the bottom) here's a sneak peak at where Book 3 is taking the characters:
Eryn gets to witness the deployment of Germany's Me-262 fighters in full-force, as Adolf Galland leads his 'Experten' in a desperate bid to stem the tide of American and British bombing of Germany. After that, it's to Occupied Poland (post-uprising Warsaw) for some diplomacy, and last-minute preparations for the massive Soviet Offensive across the Vistula.
Kim, Timur, and Patrick begin the struggle against the Texan invasion of Montana, which is both larger and more technologically-sophisticated than the Deseret attack in the Battle of the Teton River Valley. While they're now actually competent at the whole fighing thing, Chavez will take them on a trip to First Nations territory in former Wyoming, in an attempt to open a new front against the Texans.
Yarielis and Loucas start on Insurgence Headquarters in the Belt, but are dispatched along with the rest of the Insurgence fighting force on a major strike that is partly inspired by the Islamic State's assault on Mosul a few years back. But in Space, and as a prelude to an attempt to unify all the subaltern peoples of Inner Sol, which will take Yari and Loucas to the rebelling Lagrange Point Habitats, Ramallah Station in particular.
So more fun to come, to distract you from the travails of a mad, mad world! I'm also working on getting a print edition out, so those of you who prefer "real" to e-books - on it!
***EDIT November 2019***
Whoah, this page suddenly got *thousands* of hits. So in case this continues, here's a brief update on my thinking:
1. Most of the broad analysis is proving solid, though as always, the details and personalities vary a bit. Biden has partially collapsed, which was pretty much inevitable once other centrist types' name recognition went up. His voters are shifting in the early-voting states to Buttigieg, a centrist moderate, and to Harris and Klobuchar, and I expect a 4th-place finish or worse in Iowa - the Jeb Bush outcome for anyone who remembers the Republican 2016 primary. Warren has invested large amounts of money in her campaign and it is paying off, so now Sanders is looking more like a spoiler for Warren among left-leaning democrats than the other way around.
Outcome of the Democratic primary is looking more and more like a contested convention where superdelegates voting in the second round select a moderate like Buttigieg or Harris (or both) to run. Whether this produces a Progressive third party defection is impossible to know for sure, but you can bet the Sanders-wing will be less likely to turn out in November.
The other most-likely outcome appears to be a narrow Warren victory, which may well produce the centrist 3rd-party bid I mentioned above.
And for Brexit - well, finally the general election is underway. I *think* what we will see is a major shift to anti-Brexit 3rd parties and tactical voting. Will it be enough to secure an anti-Brexit coalition, as I've been expecting would form? Difficult to say. Answer probably comes down to the vagaries of by-precinct (or the British equivalent) turnout.
Regardless, the world remains a weird, increasingly dangerous place. Here's hoping some stabilizing force emerges soon - or someone gives me a few trillion $ to play with over the next 10 years...
Bringing Ragnarok Dev Diary update time!
I have not been as active on this as I should have been, but if you happen to be following along - never fear! Progress on Book 3 is... progressing!
Long story short - this week I'll be just shy of 40,000 words into the draft, approximately 30% of the way through the manuscript. I'm enjoying writing this Book in the Saga in particular because I feel like the characters have "leveled up" sufficiently to be able to independently narrate scenes without relying on asking the core supporting cast so many dumb questions.
Fingers crossed, this will allow me to integrate the idea stuff, discussions of philosophy and science and whatnot, more gently in the narrative than in the first two Books. I'm going for a learning experience type of feel, so the training element is appropriate, I think, but does start to hit the edge of plausibility after a while. If you've reached the end of Book 2, you can probably see where things are going.
In other news, Anglo-Saxon politics remain insane, with America's madness not worth speaking about, and Britain's kind of epically hilarious (to me, not to anyone having to wonder what March will bring) Brexit fiasco. I stand by my predictions on both: America is already in campaign mode, the conventional wisdom is a-flying - and as usual bad theory predominates the discourse. It'll be fun/tragic to watch the unfolding Democratic party clownshow, though there are a few bright stars shining through the fog. And Brexit... if it happens, I'll be shocked.
I have to admit feeling a sort of grudging admiration for Prime Minister Theresa May's committment to holding her Conservative Party together by taking Britain to the brink. If Britain were to vote on the matter tomorrow, the result would be 55-45 against Brexit. And the whole backstop thing - what a perfect issue for the EU to refuse to budge on! They get to look strong to their domestic audience, and justified to an international audience, because who would want to much up the Irish peace process? Basically, May is in a position where the EU gets to look benevolent and principled, while also serving its own interest - avoiding Brexit altogether.
Who says the EU doesn't work?
On the topic of predictions, here's a little map I put together with the help of Alex Wellerstein's excellent Nukemap tool:
What you should see is a rough outline of the regions that will be irradiated (and the likely direct casualties - radiation casualties not modeled) as a result of the 2029 USA-Russia nuclear exchange, following the escalation of the Second American Civil War to the nuclear level by the Hollahan, then Pilsudska, factions. Turns out, the media was wrong about how a nuclear war would go. No simple mutual annihilation and post-apocalyptic horror, no, not in reality. Ray Bradbury was closer to the mark in Fahrenheit 451 - save that neither Russia nor the US would bother targeting cities.
No, when the fearless idiots in Moscow and DC do inevitably drop the bomb, both sides will do everything they can to be selective in their targeting, demonstrating to the other that see, I can do everything you can do, so you wanna take this to the next level? Huh? in a cycle of escalation that will end when someone blinks - or the government falls.
In the 2029 Exchange, Russia targets the American ICBM fields in North Dakota and Wyoming/Colorado (the things are spread out) it judges are under the control of the psychotic Hollahan regime, which came into power via nuclear decapitation of the senior US leadership in 2028, attacked several other nuclear-armed countries (or suspects) and is happy to fling nukes about in order to secure control of the US West in the aftermath. Hence, drawing Russia's paranoid ire.
Putin's solution is (as it would have been a Soviet Premier's in the late Cold War) to go Counterforce against the most threatening part of the US arsenal (ICBMs tend to be more accurate than Submarine-launched weapons, cause Subs move) as a signal that it was ready and willing to go further. The result, is the map above. Hundreds of nuclear warheads are ground-bursted on the American ICBM silos, turning tons of soil into radioactive fallout and throwing it high up into the sky, where an unusual weather pattern funneled it over the Corn Belt.
Most of North Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Iowa are contaminated - as are all the tributaries of the Mississippi downstream. Much of Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana receive a lighter dusting that will still require removal of all affected topsoil before the region is safe again. Ohio gets a share too, as the geography of the mid-continent funnels the rest to the Great Lakes and beyond - not enough to be dangerous (very), but not exactly healthy, either.
More than 30 million people are forced to evacuate, many never to return, as their homes will be cordoned off, deemed unsafe - and who will pay for the reconstruction? Especially when the USA never recovers, and formally splits apart in subsequent years.
Hey, that's what happens when you insist on maintaining an arsenal of ICBMs at the headwaters of your continent's largest watershed. Don't like this future, Americans? Go talk to your politicians.